← Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Regionals
Water Crux MageTier 3
at Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Regionals
decks
1
(1.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-3-1
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.7%
avg ELO -10.4 per match
expected value
41.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1522
· median 1522
· range 1522–1522
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1161
Q3 1367
1685
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.7% | -15.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Wind Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
