← Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Regionals
Wind Crux LorraineTier 2
at Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.8% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 29.5% | -13.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.0% | +2.2 |
| Wind Allies | 11.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.7% | +12.2 |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 7 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 7 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banner Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tactful Sergeant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |