← Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Regionals
Water AlliesTier 1
at Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Regionals
decks
13
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
67
34-31-2
overall winrate
52.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
49.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1282
· median 1271
· range 1201–1442
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1161
Q3 1367
1685
15% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.8% | 10 | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 35.7% | 39.4% | -4.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 12.8% | 12 | 5-7-0 | 41.7% | 43.8% | 45.2% | -2.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.5% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 58.8% | +4.2 |
| Wind Allies | 11.5% | 13 | 6-6-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -0.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 58.8% | +5.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -4.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Tamer | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.3 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.3% | +4.0 |
| Wind Tonoris | 1.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Morgan, Soul Guide, Prototype Pistol, Corhazi Trapper. Losers more often ran: Tithe Proclamation, Imperial Recruit, Eye of Argus.
Morgan, Soul Guide
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Prototype Pistol
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Corhazi Trapper
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Cascading Round
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Esteemed Knight
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Tithe Proclamation
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Imperial Recruit
Losing decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Eye of Argus
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Deflecting Edge
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Storm of Thorns
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Bulwark Sword
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 82 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 62 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.62 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.50 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +0.50 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 4 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -0.38 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Cascading Round | +0.38 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tactical Retreat | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Airship Cruiser | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Freezing Round | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Bombastic Shot | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Weaponsmith | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refresh Chamber | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Plated Bullet | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Blastshot Pump | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Shadow's Twin | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tasershot | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| Reposition | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drowned Cut | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Invigorated Slash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |