EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at IanTCG MRC Regional .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 4 | 14.8% | 20 | 70.0% | 63.4% | 61.0% | 58.5% | 1384 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 50.0% | 48.1% | 55.6% | 54.1% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 70.0% | 64.4% | 53.3% | 54.7% | 1281 | — |
| 4 | Water Overlord | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 53.3% | 52.7% | 1396 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Allies | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.7% | 52.8% | 51.9% | 1188 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Neos | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 52.7% | 52.8% | 51.9% | 1188 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 7.4% | 11 | 72.7% | 73.6% | 52.2% | 55.0% | 1239 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 14.8% | 18 | 55.6% | 49.9% | 51.6% | 49.6% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Umbra Diana | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 60.0% | 54.0% | 50.6% | 50.2% | 1307 | — |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 41.8% | 48.6% | 47.8% | 1244 | — |
| 11 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 2 | 7.4% | 10 | 50.0% | 46.5% | 48.5% | 47.2% | 1311 | — |
| 12 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 50.0% | 46.4% | 44.7% | 44.1% | 1445 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Slimes | 5 | 18.5% | 19 | 28.9% | 38.4% | 42.5% | 45.5% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.7% | 5 | 0.0% | 31.6% | 40.0% | 43.9% | 1066 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 7.4% | 7 | 14.3% | 30.0% | 36.5% | 38.0% | 1166 | ↓ low |