← Yeti Gaming July 28th Online Regionals
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Yeti Gaming July 28th Online Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.1% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 46.0% | -2.0 |
| Wind Allies | 11.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 58.8% | +6.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.6% | -2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.2% | +5.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Wind Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 7 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 7 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tether in Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |