← Yeti Gaming July 28th Online Regionals
Fire EruptingTier 3
at Yeti Gaming July 28th Online Regionals
decks
2
(0.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-6-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.6%
avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
36.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1210
· median 1210
· range 1199–1221
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1204
Q3 1396
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 11.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 43.4% | -4.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
