← Yeti Gaming July 28th Online Regionals
Water AlliesTier 1
at Yeti Gaming July 28th Online Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 15 | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 47.4% | 50.5% | +0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.1% | 11 | 6-3-2 | 63.6% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +2.2 |
| Wind Allies | 11.7% | 10 | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 60.7% | 54.6% | +2.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 48.9% | -0.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.5% | +2.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.6% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 39.6% | -6.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Wind Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +4.9 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Water Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Wind Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Genesis Aegis | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conceal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Point | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |