← Yeti Gaming July 28th Online Regionals
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Yeti Gaming July 28th Online Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +0.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.1% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.7% | +2.1 |
| Wind Allies | 11.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 47.0% | -1.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 60.4% | +6.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Wind Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Fire Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Wind Arisanna | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.1% | +7.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |