← Yeti Gaming July 28th Online Regionals
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Yeti Gaming July 28th Online Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 16 | 3-10-3 | 28.1% | 32.5% | 41.8% | -3.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.1% | 12 | 3-6-3 | 37.5% | 40.6% | 46.5% | -1.5 |
| Wind Allies | 11.7% | 10 | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 35.7% | 46.9% | -1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.0% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 57.1% | +4.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.6% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 51.9% | +0.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.6% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 47.0% | -1.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 51.1% | +0.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 39.6% | -6.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.4% | +2.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.8% | +2.9 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.6% | +3.4 |
| Wind Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.5 |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.9 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
Decklists · 16 from this event
The 16 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cloak of Stillwater | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Lance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |