EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Regional Championships Box Hill. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Wind Shadowstrike

57.3%

9.3% share · 29 matches

1.9% share · 6 matches

7.4% share · 19 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Aggro	1	1.9%	6	83.3%	63.4%	59.1%	56.1%	1563	↑ top
2	Wind Shadowstrike	5	9.3%	29	65.5%	56.1%	57.3%	53.5%	1431	↑ top
3	Fire Crux Mage	4	7.4%	19	63.2%	53.7%	52.8%	50.0%	1283	—
4	Wind Vanitas	1	1.9%	7	57.1%	45.3%	52.7%	49.5%	1232	↓ low
5	Water Penguin Mill	3	5.6%	16	62.5%	59.6%	52.4%	53.5%	1344	↑ top
6	Water Astra Cleric	1	1.9%	6	58.3%	61.9%	51.8%	55.1%	1266	—
7	Slimes	7	13.0%	31	56.5%	57.6%	51.3%	53.1%	1289	—
8	Wind Astra Cleric	4	7.4%	22	56.8%	57.6%	51.1%	52.7%	1368	↑ top
9	Fire Dawn of Ashes	1	1.9%	6	58.3%	57.4%	49.6%	51.0%	1094	↓ low
10	Wind Allies	5	9.3%	25	46.0%	52.5%	49.5%	52.1%	1212	↓ low
11	Water Ravishing Mill	8	14.8%	36	51.4%	44.7%	48.2%	45.6%	1322	—
12	Water Tera Mage	1	1.9%	6	41.7%	43.9%	46.2%	46.4%	1342	↑ top
13	Water Umbra Ranger	1	1.9%	6	50.0%	46.5%	46.0%	45.5%	1223	↓ low
14	Fire Slimes	3	5.6%	13	38.5%	42.2%	44.9%	45.8%	1249	—
15	Wind Ravishing Mill	1	1.9%	4	25.0%	47.4%	44.4%	49.4%	1071	↓ low
16	Fire Arcane	1	1.9%	6	33.3%	42.7%	44.3%	45.7%	1143	↓ low
17	Fire Astra Cleric	1	1.9%	5	30.0%	46.3%	43.1%	46.0%	1204	↓ low
18	Water Allies	1	1.9%	6	41.7%	50.9%	42.4%	46.9%	1384	↑ top
19	Wind Razorgale	2	3.7%	10	5.0%	26.0%	40.5%	42.9%	1166	↓ low
20	Fire Silvie	1	1.9%	3	0.0%	36.0%	40.0%	43.5%	1116	↓ low
21	Water Wind Vanitas	1	1.9%	3	0.0%	36.9%	40.0%	45.5%	1262	—
22	Wind Exia	2	3.7%	9	22.2%	34.3%	36.4%	39.7%	1159	↓ low