← 11/23 新莊貓 Mortal Ambition Regionals 北部場
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at 11/23 新莊貓 Mortal Ambition Regionals 北部場
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 51.1% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 55.6% | +3.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Fire Exia | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.0% | -3.9 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +3.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mnemonic Charm | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Under Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |