← 11/23 新莊貓 Mortal Ambition Regionals 北部場
Fire ExiaTier 2
at 11/23 新莊貓 Mortal Ambition Regionals 北部場
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 31.0% | -10.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 27.0% | -13.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.7% | -11.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |