← 11/23 新莊貓 Mortal Ambition Regionals 北部場
Wind AlliesTier 1
at 11/23 新莊貓 Mortal Ambition Regionals 北部場
decks
4
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
12-10-2
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.0%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1342
· median 1332
· range 1168–1536
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1201
Q3 1415
1730
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.9% | +2.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.9% | -16.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.2% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 55.2% | +3.3 |
| Fire Exia | 7.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +11.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.9% | -7.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Water Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
