← 11/23 新莊貓 Mortal Ambition Regionals 北部場
Fire Crux MerlinTier 3
at 11/23 新莊貓 Mortal Ambition Regionals 北部場
decks
1
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-3-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.3%
avg ELO +2.7 per match
expected value
47.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1229
· median 1229
· range 1229–1229
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1201
Q3 1415
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Exia | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
