← 11/23 新莊貓 Mortal Ambition Regionals 北部場
Wind RazorgaleTier 1
at 11/23 新莊貓 Mortal Ambition Regionals 北部場
decks
6
(7.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
36
22-9-5
overall winrate
68.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.0%
avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
56.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1361
· median 1307
· range 1162–1730
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1201
Q3 1415
1730
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 10 | 6-4-0 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 51.3% | +0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 60.5% | +7.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 39.6% | -6.0 |
| Fire Exia | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.0% | +3.9 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 62.7% | +8.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.1% | -22.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.0% | +8.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +3.7 |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Water Allies | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.2% | +15.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Wind Kongming | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
