← 11/23 新莊貓 Mortal Ambition Regionals 北部場
Water Penguin MillTier 2
at 11/23 新莊貓 Mortal Ambition Regionals 北部場
decks
3
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
6-9-3
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1274
· median 1187
· range 1117–1516
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1201
Q3 1415
1730
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 42.7% | -5.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Exia | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.1% | +7.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.2% | -10.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
