EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at AGORA HOBBY AMB Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Luxem Assassin

55.9%

4.0% share · 17 matches

2.7% share · 14 matches

17.3% share · 78 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Razorgale	2	2.7%	14	75.0%	64.7%	58.2%	55.5%	1429	↑ top
2	Fire Luxem Assassin	3	4.0%	17	67.6%	61.2%	55.9%	54.9%	1387	↑ top
3	Slimes	13	17.3%	78	58.3%	56.4%	55.5%	54.5%	1285	—
4	Wind Umbra Ranger	1	1.3%	7	50.0%	46.7%	54.8%	52.1%	1145	↓ low
5	Wind Astra Cleric	2	2.7%	14	64.3%	51.0%	54.2%	49.9%	1426	↑ top
6	Wind Allies	6	8.0%	39	60.3%	55.7%	53.0%	51.5%	1348	—
7	Fire Slimes	2	2.7%	11	59.1%	57.1%	52.3%	52.0%	1323	—
8	Water Fractal	1	1.3%	4	62.5%	59.5%	51.8%	53.8%	1392	↑ top
9	Water Ravishing Mill	8	10.7%	44	55.7%	50.8%	50.7%	48.7%	1295	—
10	Wind Shadowstrike	10	13.3%	52	49.0%	51.0%	49.4%	50.4%	1292	—
11	Fire Crux Mage	9	12.0%	48	49.0%	50.6%	49.0%	49.8%	1286	—
12	Fire Exia	3	4.0%	14	32.1%	43.2%	45.6%	49.4%	1225	↓ low
13	Wind Slimes	1	1.3%	7	42.9%	48.1%	45.4%	46.8%	1317	—
14	Wind Cats	2	2.7%	12	41.7%	44.3%	44.1%	44.5%	1222	↓ low
15	Water Silvie	1	1.3%	7	35.7%	45.5%	43.3%	45.2%	1255	—
16	Fire Arcane	2	2.7%	15	30.0%	35.5%	41.1%	42.2%	1264	—
17	Fire Jin	1	1.3%	5	20.0%	37.7%	40.6%	43.0%	1133	↓ low
18	Water Kongming	1	1.3%	6	8.3%	29.7%	40.3%	42.4%	1460	↑ top
19	Water Tera Mage	7	9.3%	34	27.9%	35.7%	39.3%	42.4%	1270	—
20	Wind Silvie	1	1.3%	6	8.3%	35.6%	38.5%	43.5%	1183	↓ low