← Mana Pro AMB Regional Championship Singapore
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Mana Pro AMB Regional Championship Singapore
decks
13
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
81
29-37-15
overall winrate
45.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.2%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
46.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1294
· median 1336
· range 1056–1584
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1184
Q3 1371
1633
31% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
31% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.0% | 11 | 5-4-2 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 56.0% | +2.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 13.3% | 8 | 1-7-0 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 29.8% | -9.7 |
| Slimes | 11.3% | 8 | 2-4-2 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 37.1% | -6.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 11.3% | 11 | 3-3-5 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -1.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.7% | 11 | 3-5-3 | 40.9% | 43.3% | 44.6% | -2.4 |
| Fire Exia | 6.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 69.8% | +12.6 |
| Wind Allies | 6.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.4% | -13.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 36.2% | -6.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.4% | -8.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.0% | +12.5 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -19.9 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.1% | +7.8 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Mnemonic Charm, Favorable Winds, Fast Cure. Losers more often ran: Crux Sight, Library Witch, Gentle Respite.
Mnemonic Charm
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Favorable Winds
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Fast Cure
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Refracting Missile
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Honorable Vanguard
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Backup Charger
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Crux Sight
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Library Witch
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Gentle Respite
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Scatter Essence
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 2 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 2 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Set Ablaze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Attack | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |