← Mana Pro AMB Regional Championship Singapore
Water AlliesTier 1
at Mana Pro AMB Regional Championship Singapore
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.0% | 7 | 4-1-2 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 59.0% | +4.5 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 13.3% | 8 | 2-4-2 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 47.9% | -1.0 |
| Slimes | 11.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 41.6% | -4.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 11.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 41.0% | -5.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.6% | +13.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.7% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 44.3% | -3.0 |
| Fire Exia | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Wind Allies | 6.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.2% | +1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +19.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Water Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inundating Clash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |