Water Penguin MillTier 1

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 20 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• JCee 86 cards · placed #2
• Drakoitzu 83 cards · placed #8
• Lonelywish 87 cards · placed #11
• pointHERE 83 cards · placed #13
• Dexter 87 cards · placed #20
• Neoniclax 81 cards · placed #27
• MenBao 85 cards · placed #28
• sifr 83 cards · placed #30
• JustineQuck 85 cards · placed #41
• Moca 88 cards · placed #44
• ZhenLong 83 cards · placed #46
• JiaJun 83 cards · placed #51
• HurrDurr 83 cards · placed #52
• Inaki 83 cards · placed #56
• Bluexblack 81 cards · placed #74
• CookieMonster 87 cards · placed #95
• JunJek 86 cards · placed #115
• Angkuku6322 85 cards · placed #132
• Nyx 85 cards · placed #141
• Blankets 81 cards · placed #144

In 10 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Arisanna, Master Alchemist, Frozen Dismissal, Water Barrier. Losers more often ran: Nullifying Lantern, Song of Frost, Frostbind.

↑ Played more by winners

Arisanna, Master Alchemist

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.4.

Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 4.

Frozen Dismissal

Winning decks ran 2.8 copies on average, losing decks 1.6.

Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 3.

Water Barrier

Winning decks ran 3.5 copies on average, losing decks 2.0.

Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 5.

Crystalline Mirror

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.6.

Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 6.

Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.6.

Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 6.

Scepter of Lumina

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.6.

Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 6.

↓ Played more by losers

Nullifying Lantern

Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.

Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in 7, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 3.

Song of Frost

Losing decks ran 1.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.8.

Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in 7, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.

Frostbind

Losing decks ran 2.1 copies on average, winning decks 1.1.

Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in 6, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 3.

Quicksilver Grail

Losing decks ran 0.6 copies on average, winning decks 0.1.

Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in 5, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 5.

Tidestone Bovine

Losing decks ran 2.4 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.

Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in 5, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 4.

Tariff Ring

Losing decks ran 0.8 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.

Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 6.