Water Ravishing MillTier 1

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 21 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• 727 83 cards · placed #4
• Levin 84 cards · placed #14
• Lsentinel 83 cards · placed #19
• Noct 83 cards · placed #23
• Johnny 81 cards · placed #29
• Miffy 83 cards · placed #33
• Mono 83 cards · placed #34
• HiroShishou 83 cards · placed #35
• minorhythm 83 cards · placed #37
• NovaDeluxe 83 cards · placed #40
• Justinljw 83 cards · placed #49
• Zefier 83 cards · placed #55
• dcch 84 cards · placed #59
• Longinus 83 cards · placed #65
• IvanTan 83 cards · placed #68
• Zero99 81 cards · placed #70
• Nicholas 83 cards · placed #107
• Christopher 83 cards · placed #112
• MLJJ 82 cards · placed #130
• MezzoFlation 81 cards · placed #131
• Nickie 83 cards · placed #137

In 11 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Glacial Evocation, Spirit of Serene Water, Primordial Ritual. Losers more often ran: Song of Frost, Diffusive Block, Freezing Steel.

↑ Played more by winners

Glacial Evocation

Winning decks ran 1.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.

Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in 7, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 3.

Spirit of Serene Water

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.5.

Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 6.

Primordial Ritual

Winning decks ran 3.6 copies on average, losing decks 2.7.

Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 3.

Viridian Protective Trinket

Winning decks ran 1.2 copies on average, losing decks 0.8.

Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 5.

Rippleback Terrapin

Winning decks ran 3.4 copies on average, losing decks 2.0.

Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 5.

Seaside Ringleader

Winning decks ran 3.1 copies on average, losing decks 2.0.

Of 11 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 3.

↓ Played more by losers

Song of Frost

Losing decks ran 1.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.2.

Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in 5, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 6.

Diffusive Block

Losing decks ran 0.9 copies on average, winning decks 0.1.

Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in 5, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 6.

Freezing Steel

Losing decks ran 1.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.5.

Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in 7, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 2.

Frostbind

Losing decks ran 2.5 copies on average, winning decks 1.9.

Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in 6, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 3.

Hailstorm Guard

Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.

Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in 5, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 5.

Nico, Rapture's Embrace

Losing decks ran 0.4 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.

Of 11 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 7.