← Mana Pro AMB Regional Championship Singapore
Water ArisannaTier 2
at Mana Pro AMB Regional Championship Singapore
decks
1
(0.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-0-3
overall winrate
81.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
67.9%
avg ELO +8.6 per match
expected value
57.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1214
· median 1214
· range 1214–1214
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1184
Q3 1371
1633
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 14.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.3% | +9.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 13.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.3% | +5.1 |
| Slimes | 11.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 11.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Fire Exia | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
