Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Aria's Cardshop Regionals
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
1-7-0
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.5%
avg ELO -6.5 per match
expected value
42.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1148
· median 1148
· range 1108–1188
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1231
Q3 1424
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 15.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Slimes | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.5 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.1% | -10.5 |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
