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SlimesTier 1

at Aria's Cardshop Regionals

decks
3 (9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17 10-5-2
overall winrate
64.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.6% avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
55.8% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1431 · median 1464 · range 1339–1490 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055 Q1 1231 Q3 1424 1584
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Slimes 15.6% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 47.6% -1.8
Wind Astra Cleric 12.5% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.2% +14.7
Water Penguin Mill 9.4% 4 0-4-0 0.0% 25.0% 17.0% -21.1
Wind Allies 9.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.3% +3.7
Wind Shadowstrike 9.4% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 63.3% +12.7
Fire Arcane 6.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.0% +1.5
Fire Crux Mage 6.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 58.2% +7.9
Fire Exia 6.2% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 47.3% -4.4
Water Ravishing Mill 6.2% 0
Wind Razorgale 6.2% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 52.0% +1.9
Water Neos 3.1% 0
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Mystic Purifier -1.00 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Kind Beastcaller +1.00 1 0 0
Lustrous Slime +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern -1.00 0 1 0
Stalwart Shieldmate +1.00 1 0 0
Scavenging Raccoon -1.00 0 1 0
Gaia's Songbird +1.00 1 0 0
Tera Sight +1.00 1 0 0
Quicksilver Grail -1.00 0 1 0
Escape the Wreckage -1.00 0 1 0
Twilight Slime +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Mirror -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/14670/archetypes/Slimes