Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Aria's Cardshop Regionals
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
12-1-3
overall winrate
84.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
76.3%
avg ELO +10.5 per match
expected value
61.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
60.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1377
· median 1283
· range 1262–1584
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1231
Q3 1424
1584
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 15.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.4% | +15.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Slimes | 9.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 83.0% | +21.1 |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +11.6 |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.7 |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
