Fire ExiaTier 1
at Aria's Cardshop Regionals
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-4-3
overall winrate
45.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.3%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1287
· median 1287
· range 1249–1325
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1231
Q3 1424
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 15.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 12.5% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 58.1% | +5.2 |
| Slimes | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 43.1% | -5.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
