Aria's Cardshop Regionals

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Slimes	Tier 2	5	15.6%	8-14-0	36.4%	41.2%	45.8%	46.9%	1235	↓ low
2		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 2	4	12.5%	5-8-3	40.6%	43.2%	46.3%	46.8%	1274	—
3		Slimes	Tier 1	3	9.4%	10-5-2	64.7%	45.6%	55.8%	49.6%	1431	↑ top
4		Water Penguin Mill	Tier 1	3	9.4%	12-1-3	84.4%	76.3%	61.1%	60.4%	1377	↑ top
5		Wind Allies	Tier 1	3	9.4%	8-8-0	50.0%	50.2%	51.0%	51.4%	1319	—
6		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 2	3	9.4%	6-8-1	43.3%	42.9%	49.2%	48.6%	1369	—
7		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	2	6.2%	1-7-0	12.5%	36.5%	42.1%	45.9%	1148	↓ low
8		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 2	2	6.2%	4-6-1	40.9%	44.3%	46.0%	46.2%	1317	—
9		Fire Exia	Tier 1	2	6.2%	3-4-3	45.0%	53.3%	50.7%	53.3%	1287	—
10		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 2	2	6.2%	4-4-0	50.0%	53.1%	48.5%	50.2%	1332	—
11		Wind Razorgale	Tier 1	2	6.2%	6-3-3	62.5%	63.5%	52.5%	54.1%	1448	↑ top
12		Water Neos	Tier 2	1	3.1%	3-2-0	60.0%	51.2%	55.0%	53.1%	1312	—

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Slimes 5 decks · 15.6%
• Wind Astra Cleric 4 decks · 12.5%
• Slimes 3 decks · 9.4%
• Water Penguin Mill 3 decks · 9.4%
• Wind Allies 3 decks · 9.4%
• Wind Shadowstrike 3 decks · 9.4%
• Fire Arcane 2 decks · 6.2%
• Fire Crux Mage 2 decks · 6.2%
• Fire Exia 2 decks · 6.2%
• Water Ravishing Mill 2 decks · 6.2%
• Wind Razorgale 2 decks · 6.2%
• Water Neos 1 deck · 3.1%