Fire SlimesTier 2
at Aria's Cardshop Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Slimes | 9.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 52.4% | +1.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.6% | -15.2 |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 29.2% | -13.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.7% | +2.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.0% | +5.2 |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blissful Calling | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Slime King | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kind Beastcaller | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spellshield: Tera | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Red Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Twilight Slime | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hymn of Gaia's Grace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdant Slime | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |