Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Aria's Cardshop Regionals
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
6-8-1
overall winrate
43.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.9%
avg ELO -2.9 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1369
· median 1510
· range 1055–1543
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1231
Q3 1424
1584
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 15.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Slimes | 9.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | -12.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 56.9% | +5.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
