Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Aria's Cardshop Regionals
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
4-6-1
overall winrate
40.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.3%
avg ELO -2.5 per match
expected value
46.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1317
· median 1317
· range 1300–1334
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1055
Q1 1231
Q3 1424
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Slimes | 15.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Slimes | 9.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.8% | -7.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.9% | -11.6 |
| Wind Allies | 9.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | -16.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.9% | +10.5 |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
