← CoreTCG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
Fire ExiaTier 2
at CoreTCG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 12.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.5% | -6.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.8% | -11.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +7.3 |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 61 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 61 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghostsight Mare | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Indiscriminate Gyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Weaponsmith | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingress of Sanguine Ire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhao Yun, Dragonsblood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pierce the Heavens | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fireworks Display | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cemetery Sentry | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crescent Glaive | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seize Fate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Executioner's Spear | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Study the Fables | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Oppressive Presence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hulao Gate, Sun's Ascent | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Gray Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fang of Dragon's Breath | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |