← CoreTCG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
Water Penguin MillTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 12.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.9% | +3.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.9% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 36.0% | -8.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.7% | +10.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.2 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.5% | +8.2 |
| Water Allies | 4.4% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.4% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -1.5 |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Water Silvie | 3.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 36.2% | -13.3 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 74.1% | +18.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Tariff Ring, Song of Frost, Freezing Steel. Losers more often ran: Tideholder Claymore.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sink into Oblivion | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Allen, Beast Beckoner | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mistbound Cutthroat | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dewdrop Hares | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 |