← CoreTCG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at CoreTCG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
decks
8
(8.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
39
16-12-11
overall winrate
55.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.4%
avg ELO -1.6 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1339
· median 1311
· range 1089–1678
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1005
Q1 1171
Q3 1403
1736
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 12.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.5% | -4.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.5% | -5.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.3% | -7.2 |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.2% | +11.7 |
| Water Silvie | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -2.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.9% | -10.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.7% | +10.3 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 37.8% | -11.8 |
| Water Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Glacial Evocation, Ravishing Finale, Primordial Ritual. Losers more often ran: Snow Fairy, Song of Frost, Diffusive Block.
Glacial Evocation
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Ravishing Finale
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 3.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Primordial Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Smoke Bombs
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Chilling Touch
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Tidal Lock
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Snow Fairy
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Diffusive Block
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Revitalizing Cleanse
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Heavy Swing
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Strategem of Myriad Ice
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glacial Evocation | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Diffusive Block | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Give Bath | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Powered Defender | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |