← CoreTCG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
Water Tera MageTier 2
at CoreTCG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
decks
3
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
0-6-2
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.1%
avg ELO -8.6 per match
expected value
42.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1121
· median 1130
· range 1100–1134
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1005
Q1 1171
Q3 1403
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 12.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Water Allies | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Tera Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
