← CoreTCG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
Water ArisannaTier 2
at CoreTCG Mortal Ambition Regional Championship
decks
1
(1.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-1-2
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.6%
avg ELO +3.3 per match
expected value
55.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1474
· median 1474
· range 1474–1474
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1005
Q1 1171
Q3 1403
1736
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 12.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.2% | +11.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
