← Card Merchant Hamilton Grand Archive Regionals (Mortal Ambition)
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton Grand Archive Regionals (Mortal Ambition)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 16.7% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +3.5 |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 8.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.2% | -3.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.7% | -1.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 53.3% | +3.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.9% | -13.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.3% | +13.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Mnemonic Charm, Blanche, Sheltering Saint. Losers more often ran: Under Fire.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |