← Card Merchant Hamilton Grand Archive Regionals (Mortal Ambition)

Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1

at Card Merchant Hamilton Grand Archive Regionals (Mortal Ambition)

decks
2 (5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10 4-5-1
overall winrate
45.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.0% avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
50.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1331 · median 1331 · range 1321–1342 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1038 Q1 1253 Q3 1436 1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Mage 16.7% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 68.1% +13.5
Slimes 16.7% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 11.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 43.0% -11.1
Water Allies 8.3% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 41.1% -8.5
Water Penguin Mill 8.3% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 8.3% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 47.0% -2.9
Wind Allies 8.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 53.4% +3.3
Wind Razorgale 5.6% 0
Fire Aggro 2.8% 0
Fire Exia 2.8% 0
Fire Tera Mage 2.8% 0
Wind Overlord 2.8% 0
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Cleansing Reunion +1.00 1 0 0
Reclaim +1.00 1 0 0
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Diablerie +1.00 1 0 0
Scout the Land -1.00 0 1 0
Stifling Trap +1.00 1 0 0
Heavenly Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Sharpening Stone -1.00 0 1 0
Slice and Dice +1.00 1 0 0
Ensnaring Fumes +1.00 1 0 0
Windmill Engineer +1.00 1 0 0
Assassin's Ripper +1.00 1 0 0
Inspiring Call -1.00 0 1 0
Turbo Charge -1.00 0 1 0
Verdigris Decree -1.00 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Swift Recruit -1.00 0 1 0
Quicksilver Grail -1.00 0 1 0
Tristan, Shadowreaver +1.00 1 0 0
Betraying Blade -1.00 0 1 0
Mastermind Scheme +1.00 1 0 0
Zephyr +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Mirror -1.00 0 1 0
Dream Fairy -1.00 0 1 0
Penumbral Waltz -1.00 0 1 0
Blackmarket Broker +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/15907/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike