← Card Merchant Hamilton Grand Archive Regionals (Mortal Ambition)
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Card Merchant Hamilton Grand Archive Regionals (Mortal Ambition)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Slimes | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -3.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.5% | +17.8 |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.5% | -5.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.4% | +7.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intrepid Highwayman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |