← Card Merchant Hamilton Grand Archive Regionals (Mortal Ambition)
SlimesTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton Grand Archive Regionals (Mortal Ambition)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 39.0% | -8.2 |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.6% | -5.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 8.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 39.9% | -7.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +3.2 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 25.3% | -15.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.8% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.8 |
| Wind Overlord | 2.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.9% | +0.8 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Paws | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blissful Calling | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slime Eruption | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Twilight Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |