← Card Merchant Hamilton Grand Archive Regionals (Mortal Ambition)
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Card Merchant Hamilton Grand Archive Regionals (Mortal Ambition)
decks
1
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.8%
avg ELO -6.5 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1164
· median 1164
· range 1164–1164
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1038
Q1 1253
Q3 1436
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Slimes | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
