← Card Merchant Hamilton Grand Archive Regionals (Mortal Ambition)
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at Card Merchant Hamilton Grand Archive Regionals (Mortal Ambition)
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Slimes | 16.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.4% | +5.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.9% | +11.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.5% | +5.3 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.2% | +15.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drifting Rogue | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Hired Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowdancer | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extraction Incision | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Halocline Scout | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Automated Gardener | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |