← Mox Valley Games AMB Regional
Fire AggroTier 1
at Mox Valley Games AMB Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.6% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 28.7% | -13.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.8% | +5.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.6% | +11.7 |
| Fire Exia | 6.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.1% | -8.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Wind Diana | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |