← Mox Valley Games AMB Regional
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Mox Valley Games AMB Regional
decks
3
(6.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
6-11-1
overall winrate
36.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.4%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
45.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1098
· median 1123
· range 1004–1167
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1183
Q3 1368
1616
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.9% | +8.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.6% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 40.5% | -5.5 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.1% | +5.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -14.0 |
| Water Arisanna | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
