← Mox Valley Games AMB Regional
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Mox Valley Games AMB Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.6% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 71.3% | +13.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.6% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 43.1% | -4.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.3% | -3.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Fire Exia | 6.4% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +5.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.1% | +2.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.6% | -15.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -6.1 |
| Water Arisanna | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Wind Diana | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |