← Mox Valley Games AMB Regional
Water ArisannaTier 2
at Mox Valley Games AMB Regional
decks
1
(2.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
30.9%
avg ELO -11.0 per match
expected value
44.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1357
· median 1357
· range 1357–1357
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1183
Q3 1368
1616
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.0% | -13.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.9 |
| Fire Exia | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
