← Mox Valley Games AMB Regional
Wind Astra ClericTier 1
at Mox Valley Games AMB Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.7% | +3.5 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 40.4% | -7.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Fire Exia | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +3.8 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 2.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.0% | +13.4 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Wind Diana | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 19 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Astra | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dawn's Reversal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meteor Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunar Conduit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Wind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cometfall | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunar Seer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |