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Water Penguin MillTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 61.2% | +6.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 59.6% | +7.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.9% | +2.7 |
| Fire Exia | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.6% | +8.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Diana | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.1% | -5.7 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Three Visits | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Conjure Downpour | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allen, Beast Beckoner | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dewdrop Hares | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |