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Water Umbra RangerTier 2
at Mox Valley Games AMB Regional
decks
2
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
2-9-0
overall winrate
18.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.3%
avg ELO -7.3 per match
expected value
40.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1183
· median 1183
· range 1057–1310
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1004
Q1 1183
Q3 1368
1616
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.9% | -2.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.6% | -12.9 |
| Fire Exia | 6.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
