← 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
Fire AggroTier 2
at 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
decks
8
(4.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
50
24-25-1
overall winrate
49.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
51.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1281
· median 1263
· range 1099–1486
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1184
Q3 1409
1730
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
38% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.5% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 51.4% | +0.7 |
| Slimes | 11.7% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +5.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.4% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +0.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.7% | +5.6 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -1.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.0% | -14.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +4.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.8% | -12.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
