← 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
Wind Astra ClericTier 2
at 2/15 東門貓 Mortal Ambition Regional
decks
22
(13.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
129
49-59-21
overall winrate
46.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1309
· median 1311
· range 1088–1542
(22 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1184
Q3 1409
1730
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
9% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 11.7% | 24 | 12-6-6 | 62.5% | 60.7% | 60.4% | +3.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.4% | 18 | 7-7-4 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -0.9 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.8% | 16 | 2-11-3 | 21.9% | 27.5% | 34.3% | -6.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.4% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 58.6% | +4.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.1% | 11 | 5-5-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +1.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.5% | 8 | 2-3-3 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 47.5% | -1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 48.6% | -0.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.9% | +4.4 |
| Fire Exia | 1.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -1.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.8% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 26.1% | -15.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.4% | -10.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Water Fractal | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Water Silvie | 1.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Water Zander | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.6 |
| Wind Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.2% | +11.8 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
Decklists · 22 from this event
The 22 public Wind Astra Cleric decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Dawn's Reversal, Fragmented Spirit of Wind, Scatter Essence. Losers more often ran: Gentle Respite, Scry the Stars, Meteor Strike.
Dawn's Reversal
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Fragmented Spirit of Wind
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Scatter Essence
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Prima Materia
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Indolent Leisure
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 3.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Gentle Respite
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Scry the Stars
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Meteor Strike
Losing decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Fertile Grounds
Losing decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
winning decks 3.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Cometfall
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Astarte, Celestial Dawn
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.9.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawn's Reversal | +0.62 | 5 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Wind | +0.50 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Scry the Stars | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Meteor Strike | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Prima Materia | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fertile Grounds | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Indolent Leisure | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Cometfall | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Spellshield: Astra | +0.12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.12 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Empowering Prayer | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Astarte, Celestial Dawn | -0.12 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 7 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Serene Wind | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Nascent Barrier | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Three Visits | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Horticounter | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Potion of Healing | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harvest Herbs | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunar Seer | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Astral Seal | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Lunar Conduit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Zephyr | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 |